The logistics of the vaccine rollout continues to improve. The Biden Administration has announced plans to purchase an additional 200 million vaccine doses, bringing the total ordered by the U.S. to 600 million, which should be enough to vaccinate 300 million Americans, the entire adult population, by the end of July.

But it’s too soon to declare victory. Though the U.S. has struggled with its vaccine rollout, other nations have fared much worse. The global economy won’t recover until more of the population is vaccinated. New variants of the virus are emerging which could lead to further outbreaks. And everyone still needs to wear a mask and practice social distancing until health officials announce the virus is under control. But the trends are headed in the right direction.

To extend the metaphor, the U.S. still has some distance to travel before the train arrives in the station. U.S. gross domestic product is $267.9 billion shy of where it stood prior to the pandemic. The consensus among economists is that GDP will reach that benchmark no later than the second quarter of this year.

The nation has recouped 12.7 million of the 22.6 million jobs lost in the downturn. That leaves nearly 10 million Americans without jobs who had jobs this time last year. 

January’s report, a net gain of only 49,000 jobs, has spurred concerns that the recovery may be slowing. Even so, many economists expect this to be a strong year for job growth. IHS Markit forecasts the U.S. will add 6.7 million jobs in ’21, Oxford Economics predicts 5.8 million, and the consensus among economists polled by The Wall Street Journal is that the U.S. will add 4.8 million jobs. These forecasts suggest the nation will still finish the year 3.2 million to 5.1 million jobs shy of its pre-pandemic level.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits continue a bumpy trend downward. The U.S. Employment and Training Administration (ETA) reports 861,000 workers filed claims the week ending February 13, 2021, well below the recession peak of 6.9 million the week ending March 28, 2020. That suggests fewer layoffs are occurring. However, recent claims remain well above the pre-recession average of 235,000 claims per week.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management indicates growth continues but at a mixed pace. Its manufacturing index registered 58.7 in January, down from 60.5 in December. The services index also registered 58.7 in January, up from 57.7 the month before. Readings above 50 indicate activity is expanding across the sector while below 50 signals contraction. 

A few other positive signs:

• Industrial production, the output of all mines, utilities and manufacturing plants in the U.S., rose 1.6 percent in December, the largest gain since July. The gain was well above Wall Street expectations of 0.5 percent. 
• Household income, what families received from wages, investments and government-aid programs, climbed 0.6 percent in December compared to the prior month.
• Jerome Powel, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, has signaled the Fed will continue bolstering the U.S. economy through low interest rates and hefty asset purchases well into the future.
• Though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the specifics, both agree additional U.S. stimulus is needed. A package will likely pass both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in the next few weeks.

Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. The nine counties are: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller.

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