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Economy at a Glance - September 2023

This issue of Glance examines the ongoing impact of the Houston Ship Channel, the outlook for business in Texas, local employment trends, and the source of all the newcomers to Houston.
Published on 9/5/23

Gliding to a Softer Landing

The U.S. economy continues its glide path to a soft landing, not the crash-and-burn that so many expected this year.

The nation added 187,000 jobs in August and an average of 236,000 per month this year. That’s a more sustainable rate than the monthly average of 399,000 jobs in ’22 and 606,000 in ’21. August’s growth is also more in line with that of ’19, when gains averaged 163,000 per month.

The unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent in July to 3.8 in August. This was due to more Americans seeking work, not a surge in layoffs. Last month, 736,000 Americans entered the workforce, the biggest bump since January of this year. 

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) rose from 62.6 percent to 62.8 percent. This is the highest it’s been post-pandemic. After a dip in July, the LFPR for prime-aged workers, those between 25 and 54, returned to 82.5 percent. That’s the highest it’s been since March ’02.

The number of job openings has declined significantly. There were 8.8 million unfilled positions in July, down from a peak of 12.0 million in March ’22. “Quits,” also known as “voluntary separations,” or more colloquially “job hopping,” have fallen to the lowest level since February ’21. The drop in openings and quits should ease pressure on wages and inflation.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the economy grew 2.1 percent in Q2/23 adjusted for inflation. In the ten years prior to the pandemic, growth averaged 2.3 percent per quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates U.S. GDP is currently growing at a 5.6 percent annual rate, but that’s likely to be revised downward as additional economic data becomes available.

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Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. The nine counties are: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery and Waller.

Key September Takeaways

Here are the facts to know about the Houston region this month
1
September Takeaway #1
The nation added 187,000 jobs in August and an average of 236,000 per month this year.
2
September Takeaway #2
Last month, 736,000 Americans entered the workforce, the biggest bump since January of this year.
3
September Takeaway #3
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the economy grew 2.1 percent in Q2/23 adjusted for inflation.

Want to learn more? Contact our Research Team:

Patrick Jankowski, CERP
Senior Vice President, Research
713-844-3616

Previous Issues of Economy at a Glance

AUG
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The Pivot from Recession to Resilience
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JUL
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Mid-Year Report
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JUN
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The Global Economy, Home Sales, and Construction
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MAY
2023
U.S. Economic Outlook and Houston's Energy Industry
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APR
2023
Houston's population growth and employment revisions
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MAR
2023
U.S. Recession and Houston's Key Indicators
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FEB
2023
The Year in Review
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JAN
2023
The U.S. Economy and Houston's GDP Estimates
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DEC
2022
Recovery in the Oil and Gas Industry
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NOV
2022
Metro Houston's Job Growth and the Apartment Market
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OCT
2022
Exploring Population Changes Through the ACS
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SEPT
2022
Recession? Maybe, Maybe Not
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AUG
2022
Houston at Mid-Year
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JUL
2022
The Houston Housing Market, Affordability, and Recent Shifts
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JUN
2022
Economic Recovery, Population Growth & Global Houston recap
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MAY
2022
Economic recovery, rising costs & labor force
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APR
2022
Population growth and employment data
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MAR
2022
Local Impact of a Global Event
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FEB
2022
Post-Analysis of 2021 Houston Economy
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JAN
2022
Omicron, GDP, Employment
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DEC
2021
2022 Employment Forecast
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NOV
2021
Job Gains, Real Estate, Exports
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OCT
2021
Inflation, Employment & Global Innovation
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SEP
2021
Employment, Oil & Gas, Containerized Exports, and Housing
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AUG
2021
Delta Variant, Rebounding Travel, Economic Growth and Population Gains
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JUL
2021
Energy Transition, Recovery Bottlenecks, & the Worker Shortage
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JUN
2021
Economic Recovery, Multifamily, Population & More
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May
2021
Housing Boom and Robust Recovery
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APR
2021
Pandemic Recovery, Tech Workforce
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MAR
2021
Pandemic Employment Data
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FEB
2021
Coronavirus Impact and 2021 Outlook
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JAN
2021
Racial Demographics and Population Shifts
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NOV
2020
U.S. Recovery, 2021 Outlook
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OCT
2020
U.S. Recovery, Houston Update
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SEP
2020
COVID-19 Impact on Economy
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AUG
2020
Energy Change Over Time
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JUL
2020
COVID-19 Update, Houston Unemployment
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JUN
2020
COVID-19 Update, Affected Sectors, Energy
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MAY
2020
U.S. & Texas Outlook, GDP
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APR
2020
COVID-19 Update, PMI, Industry Outlook
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MAR
2020
Economic Impact, Global Outlook, Recession Probability
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FEB
2020
U.S.-China Trade Deal, USMCA
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JAN
2020
Houston GDP, Energy, Jobs
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DEC
2019
Sector by Sector Forecast for 2020
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NOV
2019
Houston Region Demographic Update 2
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OCT
2019
Houston Region Demographic Update 1
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SEP
2019
Houston's Growth Engines
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AUG
2019
PMI, Commercial Real Estate & Housing
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More Insight & Analysis

Monthly Update: Inflation

Review the latest data on inflation in the Houston area. 

Monthly Update: Employment

Review the latest data on jobs in the Houston region. 

Monthly Update: Purchasing Managers Index

Review the latest data on this key economic indicator. 

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